Triple grief cycle of cancelled events: The emotional crisis aftermath

Purpose: The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic response is not only devastating nations and economies across the globe but it is also severely disrupting the event industry, with government and health authorities forcing many events to be postponed or cancelled. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prospective attendees' emotional responses to cancelled events. This study draws upon grief cycle theory to articulate different layers of the grief process in the event domain of inquiry. Design/methodology/approach: The National Collegiate Athletic Association basketball tournament was selected as the research context. Taking user-generated messages from Twitter, this study first performed content analysis to organize lexical patterns into categories and higher-order themes based on the grief cycle. It also performed social network analyses using UCINET to illustrate how different grief phases are inter-related. Findings: Results not only point to attendees' self-expression manifested through a continuum of denial, anger, bargaining and acceptance but they also reveal a three-layer hierarchy of grief, namely, event-related, socio-politics-related and crisis-related. The network analysis further illustrates how grief phases are tied into a complex network of grief messages. Originality/value: This study advances the event literature by improving knowledge about attendees' emotional responses to cancelled events. It increases our understanding of the grieving process in the aftermath of COVID-19. The proposed triple grief cycle helps advance the literature by showcasing how voices from prospective attendees represent three pillars of grief hierarchy. The findings also underscore the emotional crisis of the COVID-19 aftermath. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities.

The two nearby Amazonian cities of Iquitos and Manaus endured explosive COVID-19 epidemics and may well have suffered the world's highest infection and death rates over 2020, the first year of the pandemic. State-of-the-art epidemiological and modeling studies estimated that the populations of both cities came close to attaining herd immunity (>70% infected) at the termination of the first wave and were thus protected. This makes it difficult to explain the more deadly second wave of COVID-19 that struck again in Manaus just months later, simultaneous with the appearance of a new P.1 variant of concern, creating a catastrophe for the unprepared population. It was suggested that the second wave was driven by reinfections, but the episode has become controversial and an enigma in the history of the pandemic. We present a data-driven model of epidemic dynamics in Iquitos, which we also use to explain and model events in Manaus. By reverse engineering the multiple epidemic waves over 2 y in these two cities, the partially observed Markov process model inferred that the first wave left Manaus with a highly susceptible and vulnerable population (≈40% infected) open to invasion by P.1, in contrast to Iquitos (≈72% infected). The model reconstructed the full epidemic outbreak dynamics from mortality data by fitting a flexible time-varying reproductive number [Formula: see text] while estimating reinfection and impulsive immune evasion. The approach is currently highly relevant given the lack of tools available to assess these factors as new SARS-CoV-2 virus variants appear with different degrees of immune evasion.

Two waves of COIVD-19 in Brazilian cities and vaccination impact.

BACKGROUNDS: Brazil has suffered two waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The second wave, coinciding with the spread of the Gamma variant, was more severe than the first wave. Studies have not yet reached a conclusion on some issues including the extent of reinfection, the infection fatality rate (IFR), the infection attack rate (IAR) and the effects of the vaccination campaign in Brazil, though it was reported that confirmed reinfection was at a low level. METHODS: We modify the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with additional class for severe cases, vaccination and time-varying transmission rates. We fit the model to the severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) deaths, which is a proxy of the COVID-19 deaths, in 20 Brazilian cities with the large number of death tolls. We evaluate the vaccination effect by a contrast of "with" vaccination actual scenario and "without" vaccination in a counterfactual scenario. We evaluate the model performance when the reinfection is absent in the model. RESULTS: In the 20 Brazilian cities, the model simulated death matched the reported deaths reasonably well. The effect of the vaccination varies across cities. The estimated median IFR is around 1.2%. CONCLUSION: Overall, through this modeling exercise, we conclude that the effects of vaccination campaigns vary across cites and the reinfection is not crucial for the second wave. The relatively high IFR could be due to the breakdown of medical system in many cities.

Multiple COVID-19 Waves and Vaccination Effectiveness in the United States.

(1) Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused multiple waves of cases and deaths in the United States (US). The wild strain, the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) and the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were the principal culprits behind these waves. To mitigate the pandemic, the vaccination campaign was started in January 2021. While the vaccine efficacy is less than 1, breakthrough infections were reported. This work aims to examine the effects of the vaccination across 50 US states and the District of Columbia. (2) Methods: Based on the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, we add a delay class between infectious and death, a death class and a vaccinated class. We compare two special cases of our new model to simulate the effects of the vaccination. The first case expounds the vaccinated individuals with full protection or not, compared to the second case where all vaccinated individuals have the same level of protection. (3) Results: Through fitting the two approaches to reported COVID-19 deaths in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia, we found that these two approaches are equivalent. We calculate that the death toll could be 1.67-3.33 fold in most states if the vaccine was not available. The median and mean infection fatality ratio are estimated to be approximately 0.6 and 0.7%. (4) Conclusions: The two approaches we compared were equivalent in evaluating the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign in the US. In addition, the effect of the vaccination campaign was significant, with a large number of deaths averted.

The Disease Severity and Clinical Outcomes of the SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern.

With the continuation of the pandemic, many severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have appeared around the world. Owing to a possible risk of increasing the transmissibility of the virus, severity of the infected individuals, and the ability to escape the antibody produced by the vaccines, the four SARS-CoV-2 variants of Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), and Delta (B.1.617.2) have attracted the most widespread attention. At present, there is a unified conclusion that these four variants have increased the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, but the severity of the disease caused by them has not yet been determined. Studies from June 1, 2020 to October 15, 2021 were considered, and a meta-analysis was carried out to process the data. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants are all more serious than the wild-type virus in terms of hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality, and the Beta and Delta variants have a higher risk than the Alpha and Gamma variants. Notably, the random effects of Beta variant to the wild-type virus with respect to hospitalization rate, severe illness rate, and mortality rate are 2.16 (95% CI: 1.19-3.14), 2.23 (95% CI: 1.31-3.15), and 1.50 (95% CI: 1.26-1.74), respectively, and the random effects of Delta variant to the wild-type virus are 2.08 (95% CI: 1.77-2.39), 3.35 (95% CI: 2.5-4.2), and 2.33 (95% CI: 1.45-3.21), respectively. Although, the emergence of vaccines may reduce the threat posed by SARS-CoV-2 variants, these are still very important, especially the Beta and Delta variants.

Triple grief cycle of cancelled events: the emotional crisis aftermath. (Special Issue: Contemporary issues in event management.)

Purpose - The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic response is not only devastating nations and economies across the globe but it is also severely disrupting the event industry, with government and health authorities forcing many events to be postponed or cancelled. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prospective attendees' emotional responses to cancelled events. This study draws upon grief cycle theory to articulate different layers of the grief process in the event domain of inquiry. Design/methodology/approach - The National Collegiate Athletic Association basketball tournament was selected as the research context. Taking user-generated messages from Twitter, this study first performed content analysis to organize lexical patterns into categories and higher-order themes based on the grief cycle. It also performed social network analyses using UCINET to illustrate how different grief phases are inter-related. Findings - Results not only point to attendees' self-expression manifested through a continuum of denial, anger, bargaining and acceptance but they also reveal a three-layer hierarchy of grief, namely, event-related, socio-politics-related and crisis-related. The network analysis further illustrates how grief phases are tied into a complex network of grief messages. Originality/value - This study advances the event literature by improving knowledge about attendees' emotional responses to cancelled events. It increases our understanding of the grieving process in the aftermath of COVID-19. The proposed triple grief cycle helps advance the literature by showcasing how voices from prospective attendees represent three pillars of grief hierarchy. The findings also underscore the emotional crisis of the COVID-19 aftermath.